Oil price forecast

[Green1]

Then I have to work with a fairly unpleasant cocktail of lye and methanol,

one additional problem where I live, it is illegal to have more than 4L of methanol on hand at any one time within the city limits, makes the whole process quite irritating...

[BCDelica]

Did anyone catch Nova on PBS yesterday? The prognosis for biodiesel was discussed, interesting program.

I was wondering about the eventual availability of WVO if the future unfolds as the report predicts. I read one guide where the person said they used a total of 10 restaurants to supply 40 gallons per week. So I thought of that in terms of my own situation were I to embrace this technology in future. Because I live in a tourist town the per capita number of restaurants is skewed. With a population of roughly 10,000 and 100 restaurants, I'd be in good shape with about one restaurant to 100 people. In a place like Victoria, it is saidto be one restaurant per 1,264 people.

So it would appear that in my location, at the moment I'd probably be in demographic heaven with regards to collecting the WVO I may need. But roughly based on the figures above, it would seem that my town would support 10 of us locally if we were to decide to go with using WVO from restaurants. I found a figure of 265 restaurants for Victoria which claimed to be the second highest per capita in Canada. A few seat of the pants calculations would indicate that cities like Victoria then would support 25-30 people in terms of their WVO needs. So with the potential for restaurants to support less than .01% of the population in terms of a WVO supply, I was wondering what the future may hold for this?

Wonder why I can't figure that out, the 10 restaurants for 40 gallons? Our current VO supplier can produce up to 50 gallons on a good week, but their a busy union shop with a pub, restaurant, and hotel. Between 2 vehicles and home heating we can't use it all; though don't often use it in the oil furnace as the fumes settle directly in our neighbors backyards on calm days. The least was from a small Chinese restaurant that only had 2-16 liter jugs a week (8 gallon), which at that amount would require 5 restaurants? And we are picky and don't collect the fats/griddle grease.

Of note we too are in demographic heaven, as over the years we constantly turn down offers of used WVO; and on several occasions have had many filled jugs of WVO just show up unannounced.

JMK made a good point in the fact that there is no reason a community could easily use all the waste VO generated.

That's OK Green1, cause only Ethanols good to drink right?

Cheers

[JMK]

I knew that those figures may be called into question by people more qualified than I am, EG: people that are actually using it, so that's why I provided the link so it could be checked. However, the exact figures aside, I think the point that I was trying to make is it seems probable that the ability to support a certain percentage of the population by restaurants supplying WVO is finite. For example, if I assume that the figures for Victoria are even somewhat in the ballpark, and we increase the number of people that they could support by the same number of restaurants (EG: one restaurant could supply one Delica which seems improbable), you'd still be looking at no more than 300 people in the Victoria area being able to run on WVO. If the price of gas doubles in the next 5 years, it seems like a lot more than 300 people would be looking to find another source and restaurants will no longer have to pay or give it away, they'll be selling it to WVO brokers or processors.

[Green1]

it is a well known fact that there is not enough WVO to supply fuel for all vehicles, however that is no reason not to use it to supply as many as it can.

Biodiesel can also be produced from other sources, one of which that shows a lot of promise is a form of algae (this has the added bonus that it doesn't compete with the human food supply)

[Adam]

I'm right on board with this scientist looking dude, algae not corn:

[JMK]

there is not enough WVO to supply fuel for all vehicles, however that is no reason not to use it to supply as many as it can.

I'm in complete agreement with that, and the post was not made so that I could start a diatribe on the matter because I may like to start an argument, but to express another constructive way of looking at things.

1: A point that may not be appreciated by all: in the near future things may *change* significantly.
And:
2: These factors may come into play in terms of making a decision to convert based upon your particular demographics. Someone who goes to the trouble and expense of converting to WVO this year may regret the decision if a year from now they are in hot competition with their neighbours where the demand exceeds the supply.

I'm sure many have not actually been aware of the ratio of restaurants to the population, figures that I found interesting. The above are not intended to discourage its use and not good reasons to not use it, but they may be significant factors involved in the decision making process to convert a vehicle over to it if the plan was to be able to have access to WVO for say, the next 5 years. I don't think anyone could say with confidence that because you can get unlimited supplies of WVO today, that you'll still be able to in a couple of years, and that's simply the point that I'm addressing here.

[The Pinkfingers]

As the demand for WVO rises, I'm sure it won't be long before restaurants will charge for it...

[Green1]

while the restaraunt to population ratio may be low, the restaraunt to WVO using person ratio is still extremely high, there is very little risk of saturating that market for a few years yet.

Also, another source to think about is chip factories, I know a producer around here who gets his WVO from a chip factory and says it is amazingly clean compared to most restaraunts...

[Kuan]

The Cowichan Biodiesel Coop did a study in the Cowichan valley here on the amount of wvo from restaurants existed. I'll try to dig up the info for you guys but there was plenty to go around.

There are already several Commercial Biodiesel producers threatening to pay for wvo pickup from many restaurants.

But seriously, there are a ton of restaurants out there at the moment. There was a post in UsedVictoria from a restaurant with 60 gallons a day!! (They change over everyday) Thats got to be the best oil around.

We just picked up some restaurants in town and we'll be picking up about 90 litres a week.

In terms of long term sustainability, I think the best way is for communities to form biofuel coops and establish close relationships with "local" restaurants. This is what we are trying to do here. We supports the restaurants by promoting them to coop members, we get the oil , process it and supply it back to the community. Full cycle.

As such the local community is more insulated from external price changes. Its cleaner for the environment, and people don't have to die for it (except for eating too many french fries)

"I still have to negotiate a deal for WVO, which is the part I least want to do."
--Me too. Thats why I have partners. They handle that and I make the stuff. However, it was super easy! She pulled one restaurant out of the phone book, called and we got the deal.
--Glycerine-> what comes out of the biodiesel is a glycerine cocktail of methanol, excess KOH and glyerine. I remove the methanol by distillation and reuse it to make biodiesel. The left over can be used in a couple different ways.
1) compost it. --it composts very well when added to your regular compost
2) make soap -- KOH glycerine makes liquid soap, NaOH makes bars
3) reuse it to pretreat your WVO. It brings down the fatty acids so you have to use less KOH.
-- or all the above.

Making biodiesel is pretty easy. I admit I made some crappy screw up batches but once you understand the reaction and the process its pretty easy sailing.

Regarding Bio vs WVO (which I saw in another post) - the main reason I can see for bio is that we are making it for 4-5 families with 6-7 vehicles. THe biodiesel setup costs about $1000-$2000. Veg. oil conversion cost $1000-$2000 per vehicle, plus some of the vehicles its not worth converting.

[BCDelica]

Also, another source to think about is chip factories, I know a producer around here who gets his WVO from a chip factory and says it is amazingly clean compared to most restaraunts...

Sounds the holy grail of WVO sources! Very cool. Know it's asking a lot, but any usable waste product should be able to stay in the community it was generated in, not requiring the burning of more non-renewable resources shipping said waste somewhere else.

Well put too Kuan. Edit - personally love every biodiesel coop success story; first starting three years (too 3 three months ago) back posting flyer's around with invitations to start a coop or provide WVO information sessions. Minimal responses, so I can't wait for Kaun coop's data.

[Kuan]

1: A point that may not be appreciated by all: in the near future things may *change* significantly.
And:
2: These factors may come into play in terms of making a decision to convert based upon your particular demographics. Someone who goes to the trouble and expense of converting to WVO this year may regret the decision if a year from now they are in hot competition with their neighbours where the demand exceeds the supply.

I'm sure many have not actually been aware of the ratio of restaurants to the population, figures that I found interesting. The above are not intended to discourage its use and not good reasons to not use it, but they may be significant factors involved in the decision making process to convert a vehicle over to it if the plan was to be able to have access to WVO for say, the next 5 years. I don't think anyone could say with confidence that because you can get unlimited supplies of WVO today, that you'll still be able to in a couple of years, and that's simply the point that I'm addressing here.

You are right. The only thing for certain is change. Its always been that way.
The ratio of restaurants to population is interesting. However, I think there is a lot more restaurants and a lot more WVO out there than we can imagine. I think those converting to WVO will pay off before they lose their source.

Which brings to the point that we need to build relationships with our suppliers, as individuals and as a community. Like I said in my previous post, its entirely feasible to have a local fuel economy. I'll try to get the cowichan statistics to look at.. Its quite interesting.

[EnviroImports.com]

I have to agree with the "no shortage" thought, I get 2 16L containers of oil every day set aside for me and thats just from one restraunt. I have 2 other restraunts that are waiting for me to start taking it from them also, the one place has 4 deep fryers, and change the oil daily, so certanly there is not enough to supply a city on a daily basis, but for the amount of people that are on wvo or bio diesel, there is more than enough

[delicat]

Wonder if it's different for you guys on the Island but here in the LMD most of the restaurant I've approached already had someone paying them to remove their dirty oil. Some had a contract while most just said they were already being paid and weren't interested.

So a good advice to all of you thinking of going WVO, make sure you get your oil supply before ordering your kit. I'm not trying to put you off this great lifestyle but just a heads up...

I got my oil supply before getting my kit. It's only 65L/wk but it's a good start. And it's from a sushi restaurant that change their oil twice/week so it should be pretty clean.

Happy WVO to everyone!

[Green1]

And it's from a sushi restaurant that change their oil twice/week so it should be pretty clean.

with sushi being uncooked and all you would think the oil should be VERY clean...

[JMK]

delicat's post sums up what I suspected. I don't share the optimism of some above, my feeling is there is a bit of denial on the part of anyone who has a vested interest in the topic, or is biased because they sell equipment and therefore profit from it.

I think that if you think you can hop in your vehicle for a cross country road trip next year and plan to pull into a likely looking restaurant in Hope or Salmon Arm you will get the same response delicat noted above. However, if you have secured your supply locally, then you are probably going to be good for awhile, even if you end up paying a modest sum to compete with the processors that start to buy it.

SO this begs the question that a quick look through the other section did not answer, so I'll ask it here. Assuming my prediction above gains substance and your only reliable source is a local one, are you better off to have a machine in your garage and make biodiesel, or convert your van? I've been trying to find some information regarding the pros and cons of each method but haven't had a lot of luck so far.

Sushi restaurants all serve Tempura which is deep fried in Canola Oil. When they change it out it is very clean. I just had this conversation a few minutes ago with my partner that works in one and just got home from there. In fact, that would be our assured source for oil if we were to go that route.